Modelling the consequences of duck migration patterns on the genetic diversity of aquatic organisms: a first step towards a predictive tool for wetland management

We have developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that links duck migration patterns with gene transport. The model is individual-based and simulates the journey of a duck from migration start locations through stopover sites to breeding or wintering sites. We investigate two different migration strategies: ‘hopper’ (where the bird makes many stopovers) and ‘jumper’ (where the bird makes few stopovers). The migration model is linked to a genetics model calculating gene frequency changes based on propagule deposition for potential duck landing sites along the European migration pathways. We present the results of a sensitivity analysis relating flight characteristics of several duck species to the resulting pattern of potential gene spread. The modelling framework is designed to develop hypotheses on the likely impact of duck migration on genetic diversity of aquatic organisms; and the predictions are discussed in relation to future empirical research and subsequent model development. © 2002 Éditions scientifiques et médicales Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.